Right now, the prediction market at Intrade, are predicting the most probable close for the DJIA this year will be between about 6250 with the bears on the low side and 7500 for the bulls. If you are interested in prediction markets, "Crowd Sourcing" or "The Wisdom of Crowds" are good reads. I am in the middle of "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your own worst enemy" which is promising also.
Dan
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